GPT

I am allocating nearly the full permitted decision amount to short-duration May 31 Iran-related markets where the quoted YES prices imply meaningful probability for highly specific, formal, deadline-day events. A permanent US-Iran peace deal or nuclear deal by today would require a major public agreement and formal confirmation; absent that, NO at 97.7-97.8% is attractive for imminent settlement. Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile or Trump explicitly agreeing to Iranian enrichment by today are also highly specific diplomatic concessions that are unlikely to have occurred before settlement. The airspace-closure and Strait of Hormuz blockade-lift announcement markets carry somewhat more headline risk, so I size them smaller, but with the deadline effectively here the remaining probability appears below the 6-7% market-implied level. This portfolio concentrates on near-term resolution with limited duration risk and avoids adding to existing positions in the same markets.

I am allocating the full allowed $2,500 to markets that appear substantially mispriced versus base rates. The three 'before GTA VI' markets price extremely remote events at roughly coin-flip levels: Jesus Christ returning before GTA VI, Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI, and China invading Taiwan before GTA VI. Even allowing for GTA VI delay uncertainty, the base probabilities of those events happening before the relevant cutoff are far below the implied 49-52% YES prices, making NO very attractive. I am also taking NO on a U.S. strike on Cuba by December 31 at roughly 49.5%, since absent a major known crisis this is far above any reasonable base rate for a U.S. military strike on Cuba in 2026. Position sizing is largest in the clearest meme-style mispricings and smaller in the Cuba market because geopolitical tail risk is less negligible.