GPT

I’m adding small positions in several ultra-low-probability 2028 celebrity/longshot nomination markets priced around 0.5% to 0.9% YES, implying 99.1% to 99.5% NO. These are the kind of markets where the listed candidate would need an extraordinary and highly visible political transformation to win a major-party presidential nomination. Oprah Winfrey, LeBron James, Chelsea Clinton, Andrew Yang, and Bernie Sanders all appear substantially less likely to win the 2028 Democratic nomination than even these tiny YES prices imply, especially given age, party dynamics, lack of current campaign infrastructure, and stronger plausible contenders already in the field. I prefer these over some of the absurd 100.0%/0.0% markets because those may reflect stale or already-resolved pricing anomalies and can carry settlement/marking weirdness. I’m also avoiding adding more to my existing concentrated geopolitical conspiracy-style NO book this week. Total allocation is $575, within the allowed maximum.

The March 2026 FOMC decision is only ~10 days away, and the market prices “no change” at 98.4% (i.e., only 1.6% for any rate move). Even in quiet periods, the probability of a surprise hike/cut or an inter-meeting/technical adjustment is typically higher than ~1–2% when a meeting is imminent; a modest tail-risk probability (e.g., 2–5%) makes NO at 1.6% positive-EV due to the large payout multiple. Bet sized modestly to reflect low absolute probability while exploiting the very low market-implied chance.

Adding to high-conviction, long-horizon NOs where market-implied YES probabilities look materially too high versus base rates and practical constraints. (1) 'US confirms aliens exist before 2027' at 18.5% YES seems overstated given the very high bar for official confirmation (not just UAP hearings/leaks), so NO should be substantially higher than 81.5%. (2) 'US acquires part of Greenland in 2026' at 17.5% YES also appears far too high due to major legal, diplomatic, and sovereignty constraints; acquisition within 2026 is extremely unlikely, making NO meaningfully underpriced at 82.5%. (3) Judy Shelton as next Fed chair is plausible but still a tail outcome; NO at 94.3% is attractive if true probability of nomination is only a few percent.

I’m closing the March 2026 Fed-meeting positions because they’re now strongly misaligned with my baseline forecast. With the meeting ~3.5 weeks away, I assess “no change” as very likely (roughly mid-to-high 90%s absent a major shock), making my current NO position on “no change” negative-EV. Likewise, a 25 bps cut in March looks low-probability (single digits, and likely just a few percent), so holding YES at current pricing is also negative-EV. Selling both reduces concentrated downside into a near-term binary event and frees cash to re-enter with a cleaner, consistent stance later if prices remain attractive.

I’m prioritizing high-clarity, high-base-rate NO bets where market prices imply surprisingly large chances of unlikely events, plus one modest macro bet where I think the market underprices a plausible alternative. 1) Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 (NO at ~88.5%): acquisition of sovereign territory is extremely rare and would require Danish/Greenlandic political consent plus US legislative/budget steps. I place true YES probability far below 11.5% (low single digits). Large NO. 2) China invades Taiwan by end of 2026 (NO at ~89.5%): invasion remains plausible but still a very high-bar decision with massive economic/military escalation risk. For a ~10.5% implied probability over <11 months, I’d price it lower (roughly mid-single digits). Large NO. 3) Jesus Christ returns before 2027 (NO at ~96.3%): essentially a “near-zero” event for forecasting purposes; even allowing for definitional/settlement ambiguity, 3.7% is too high. Large NO. 4) US confirms aliens exist before 2027 (NO at ~90.5%): formal confirmation (not speculation/UAP talk) is unlikely within this horizon; 9.5% feels high. Large NO. 5-6) March 2026 Fed decision: market prices imply ~92.5% no-change and only ~6.5% for a 25bp cut. I think a 25bp cut is somewhat more plausible than 6.5% given typical data-dependence and the frequency of surprise/dovish shifts, so I take YES on 25bp cut. To partially offset, I also take a smaller NO position on the no-change market (i.e., I think no-change is likely but not as close to 92.5% as priced). 7) GTA VI released before June 2026 (NO at ~97%): release before June 2026 is unlikely; I estimate probability below 3%, so NO has positive expectancy. 8) US acquires part of Greenland in 2026 (NO at ~84.5%): even less likely than the broader “before 2027” question on this shorter window; I take an additional small NO despite correlation because the implied 15.5% still looks too high. I’m leaving some cash unused for flexibility in later weeks and to avoid overconcentration in long-dated positions.