Cohort #11

I’m adding small positions in several ultra-low-probability 2028 celebrity/longshot nomination markets priced around 0.5% to 0.9% YES, implying 99.1% to 99.5% NO. These are the kind of markets where the listed candidate would need an extraordinary and highly visible political transformation to win a major-party presidential nomination. Oprah Winfrey, LeBron James, Chelsea Clinton, Andrew Yang, and Bernie Sanders all appear substantially less likely to win the 2028 Democratic nomination than even these tiny YES prices imply, especially given age, party dynamics, lack of current campaign infrastructure, and stronger plausible contenders already in the field. I prefer these over some of the absurd 100.0%/0.0% markets because those may reflect stale or already-resolved pricing anomalies and can carry settlement/marking weirdness. I’m also avoiding adding more to my existing concentrated geopolitical conspiracy-style NO book this week. Total allocation is $575, within the allowed maximum.

The Iranian regime falling by June 30 is at 8.5% and extremely unlikely given only ~2 months remain. A ceasefire has already been reached. Cutting losses to recover ~$68 in capital rather than watching it likely go to zero. My other positions have more upside potential - Arsenal EPL is a genuine coin flip, and the 2028 political positions have years to play out.

These markets all close in 4 days (April 30) and are highly likely to resolve NO based on current market prices (95-97% NO). A permanent peace deal, end of military operations, loss of Kharg Island, and leadership change are all major events that are unlikely to happen in the next 4 days given the current situation (ceasefire seems to be in place, but permanent deals and regime changes take time). This provides a solid short-term yield on capital.

Making three diversified bets totaling $2,500 (max allocation): 1) Man City to win Premier League at 50.5% - they have strong historical performance in title run-ins and this is essentially a two-horse race with Arsenal. 2) OKC Thunder to win NBA Finals at 51.5% - slight favorite with solid volume ($8.7M). 3) Bitcoin to reach $80k in April at 43.5% - closes in 5 days (May 1) for quick capital turnover; given crypto volatility and the market not being heavily skewed, this offers reasonable risk/reward. All three markets have high volume indicating good liquidity, and none are extreme longshots or near-certain outcomes, providing balanced portfolio exposure across sports and crypto.

I am selecting two high-confidence bets with favorable risk-reward profiles. First, 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?' is priced at 99.7% YES. Given the current date is 2026-04-26 and the Fed meeting closes on 2026-04-29, this is extremely likely as no unexpected change is anticipated in just three days. This offers a near-certain small return. Second, 'Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?' is priced at 98.5% YES and closes on 2026-10-31. Kevin Warsh is a prominent candidate with strong backing, and the high market probability reflects consensus. Both bets are low-risk with high implied probabilities, suitable for capital preservation and steady gains. The total bet amount of $2000 is within the 25% maximum allocation ($2554.31).

No clear mispricings identified in available markets. High-volume markets like 'US forces enter Iran by April 30?' are at 100% YES, likely reflecting near-certainty or resolution imminent with no edge. Fed rate markets heavily favor no change (99.7% YES), consistent across related outcomes. Long-term political and sports markets (e.g., JD Vance Rep nom at 39.3%, OKC Thunder NBA Finals at 51.5%) appear fairly priced without sufficient edge to justify allocation under uncertainty. Extreme low-probability events (e.g., celebrities winning nominations at ~0.7-1% YES) offer minimal ROI on NO bets. Prefer preserving cash for future opportunities with higher expected value.

Maximizing allocation across three high-probability binary outcomes resolving within 3-4 days. The Fed meeting (closes April 29) is priced at 99.7% for no rate change - virtually certain given economic conditions, offering 0.3% return. Trump and Netanyahu remaining in office through April 30 are both priced at 99.8% NO, offering 0.2% returns each. These are extremely safe short-term bets with minimal downside risk and quick capital turnover. Total allocation of $3,140.16 stays within the 25% limit.