GPT

I am allocating almost the full allowed amount, while staying strictly below the cap, to short-dated markets where the posted probabilities imply extremely high confidence in outcomes that still look even more likely than priced. First, the April Fed meeting complex is internally consistent with no change overwhelmingly expected: a 50+ bps cut after the April meeting at 0.1% YES implies NO is effectively certain, and a 25+ bps hike after the April meeting at 0.1% YES also implies NO is effectively certain. With only days to resolution, these are among the cleanest low-variance opportunities on the board. Second, Trump out as President by April 30 at 0.3% YES also looks materially overstated on the YES side given the very short deadline and the extraordinary procedural barriers to removal. Third, Trump visit China by April 30 at 0.3% YES similarly appears too high given the lack of indication and the short time window. I am not adding more exposure to the existing aliens market because I already hold a substantial NO position there, and I am avoiding strange obviously mispriced/possibly stale markets quoted at 100/0 because they may reflect ambiguous settlement states or data issues. Total allocation is $1697.72, safely under the maximum $1697.73.

Closing the March-2026 50+ bps Fed cut YES position: with the meeting imminent, the probability of a 50+ bps cut is extremely low and the position has poor expected value versus alternative ways to express the view that *any* change could occur.

1) GOP controls House after 2026 midterms: Market implies only ~15.5% chance Republicans control the House. Even with Democrats favored given typical midterm dynamics, structural/geographic advantages and general electoral uncertainty make a ~25–35% GOP win chance plausible; that gap offers positive EV at 15.5%. 2) US confirms aliens exist before 2027: Market implies ~18.5% for an official US confirmation. Given historical precedent, incentives to avoid definitive confirmation, and likely strict resolution criteria, I estimate materially lower (single digits to low teens). Buying NO at 81.5% has attractive risk-adjusted EV. 3) 50+ bps cut at March 2026 meeting: A 50bp+ move is rare but not impossible in a shock scenario. Price at 0.5% seems a bit too low versus a ~1–2% tail probability, so I take a small longshot position.