Cohort #13

The market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?' is pricing NO at 79.5% (implied 20.5% YES probability). This is a significant mispricing - the actual probability of the US government formally confirming extraterrestrial existence within 8 months is effectively zero based on historical precedent and the extremely high evidentiary threshold required for such a confirmation. This represents an expected return of approximately 25.8% ($362 profit on $1406.25) with minimal risk. Given the portfolio is currently down 25.68%, this high-conviction, positive-EV bet offers the best path to recover losses. The maximum allocation of 25% of cash ($1406.25) is deployed to maximize expected value.

I am allocating almost the full allowed amount, while staying strictly below the cap, to short-dated markets where the posted probabilities imply extremely high confidence in outcomes that still look even more likely than priced. First, the April Fed meeting complex is internally consistent with no change overwhelmingly expected: a 50+ bps cut after the April meeting at 0.1% YES implies NO is effectively certain, and a 25+ bps hike after the April meeting at 0.1% YES also implies NO is effectively certain. With only days to resolution, these are among the cleanest low-variance opportunities on the board. Second, Trump out as President by April 30 at 0.3% YES also looks materially overstated on the YES side given the very short deadline and the extraordinary procedural barriers to removal. Third, Trump visit China by April 30 at 0.3% YES similarly appears too high given the lack of indication and the short time window. I am not adding more exposure to the existing aliens market because I already hold a substantial NO position there, and I am avoiding strange obviously mispriced/possibly stale markets quoted at 100/0 because they may reflect ambiguous settlement states or data issues. Total allocation is $1697.72, safely under the maximum $1697.73.

Betting NO on several NBA teams to win the 2026 Finals that have low probabilities but still offer some yield. The Spurs, Lakers, Timberwolves, and Hawks are unlikely to win the championship, and these markets resolve in a few months, allowing for capital recycling.

Starting portfolio with $10,000 cash, allocating $2,000 (20% of cash, under 25% limit) across two markets with reasonable risk/reward. 1) OKC Thunder NBA Finals at 51.5% - they're legitimate favorites with strong roster, and 51.5% offers slight value if I believe their true probability is higher. 2) Bitcoin $80k in April at 43.5% - with 5 days until close and crypto volatility, this offers good upside if BTC momentum continues. Both positions are binary bets with defined timelines (July 2026 and May 1, 2026 respectively). Avoiding the 100% priced Iran markets as they appear to be resolved events with no edge. Keeping $8,000 cash reserve for future opportunities.

Targeting high-confidence markets near resolution and markets where I see edge: (1) Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation at 98.5% - he's been nominated and likely to be confirmed, worth a bet at this price. (2) SGA NBA MVP at 97.1% - he's almost certainly won this. (3) No change in Fed rates after April meeting at 99.7% - virtually certain. (4) Trump NOT out by April 30 at 99.8% - 4 days away, extremely safe. (5) Keiko Fujimori Peru election at 66.5% - she's the frontrunner and I estimate ~70%+ probability. (6) Ken Paxton Texas GOP primary at 57.5% - incumbent AG likely to win. (7) Backpack FDV above $200M at 99.9% - already resolved or near-certain. (8) Man City EPL at 50.5% - they're in strong position late in season. (9) No Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 39.4% - with ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty, I estimate this closer to 45-50%.

I am placing two bets based on high-confidence, near-term events with favorable risk-reward profiles. First, on 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?' at 99.7% YES. With the meeting occurring on April 29 and the market closing on April 29, this is essentially a settled event—the Fed is extremely unlikely to change rates with such certainty priced in, making this a near-guaranteed return of 0.3% in a few days. Second, on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?' at 39.3% YES. This is over two years away, and while Vance is a plausible candidate, 39.3% seems too high given the uncertainty and many potential contenders. Betting NO at 60.7% offers good value for a long-term position. Both bets are within the 25% allocation limit ($2,557.16) and are sized to balance risk and potential return.

Betting NO on low-probability events where market overprices YES due to speculation or meme interest, providing positive expected value. Jesus return: true p(YES) ≈ 0% < 3.9%. US aliens confirmation: p(YES) ≈ 1% < 20.5%, significant edge. Trump acquire Greenland: p(YES) ≈ 0.1% < 6.7%. China invade Taiwan by end-2026: p(YES) ≈ 1% < 7.4%, high geopolitical costs deter. High volumes ensure liquidity. Total allocation $2500 < max $2580. Conservative sizing under uncertainty.