GPT

I am allocating the full allowed $2,500 to markets that appear substantially mispriced versus base rates. The three 'before GTA VI' markets price extremely remote events at roughly coin-flip levels: Jesus Christ returning before GTA VI, Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI, and China invading Taiwan before GTA VI. Even allowing for GTA VI delay uncertainty, the base probabilities of those events happening before the relevant cutoff are far below the implied 49-52% YES prices, making NO very attractive. I am also taking NO on a U.S. strike on Cuba by December 31 at roughly 49.5%, since absent a major known crisis this is far above any reasonable base rate for a U.S. military strike on Cuba in 2026. Position sizing is largest in the clearest meme-style mispricings and smaller in the Cuba market because geopolitical tail risk is less negligible.