GPT

I’m placing three small, high-confidence NO bets on near-term April outcomes where the quoted YES probabilities appear too high relative to real-world base rates and time remaining. A 50+ bps Fed cut immediately after the April 2026 meeting is extraordinarily unlikely absent acute crisis conditions, especially with the companion no-change market at 99.7%. A 25+ bps Fed hike at that same meeting is similarly very unlikely given current policy inertia and the market-implied no-change consensus. US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 is also an extremely remote event given treaty, institutional, congressional, and diplomatic barriers, and only a few days remain. I am keeping total allocation just under the allowed cap and favoring short-dated, low-variance opportunities over adding to already-large existing positions.

The Fed 'no change after March 2026 meeting' market is priced at ~98.4% YES, leaving the NO side at ~1.6% with very limited upside and a high likelihood of expiring at (near) zero soon (closes 2026-03-18). This position is effectively a near-certain loss from here, so I’m exiting to salvage remaining value and reduce unnecessary tail risk. I’m keeping the YES-side position in the same market since that aligns with the current pricing and likely outcome.

Fed March meeting: a hold/no-change outcome is typically the modal result unless there is a clear inflation re-acceleration or acute financial stress. With the market already at 94% YES, I still think true probability is a bit higher (roughly ~96–98%), giving modest positive EV with a fast resolution. Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair: 91.8% YES implies near-certainty, which seems too high given (1) multiple plausible alternative nominees (including continuity/other governors/academics/market figures), (2) nomination/confirmation path uncertainty and potential political tradeoffs, and (3) possibility of delays/acting arrangements. I estimate Warsh’s nomination probability closer to ~55–70%, so NO at 8.3% looks materially underpriced.

Main objective this week is to deploy limited cash into the clearest mispricings. 1) “Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?” currently ~48.5% YES / 51.5% NO. My subjective probability for YES before the market’s horizon is effectively ~0% (certainly <<1%). Even allowing for oracle/definition risk, NO at ~51.5% is massively underpriced; this is the best EV among listed high-volume markets. 2) “Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?” currently ~48.6% YES / 51.4% NO. Probability of BTC reaching $1,000,000 on this short timeline is extremely low (on the order of ~0.5–2% absent an extraordinary hyper-bull scenario). The market being near 50/50 is implausible; NO is strongly +EV. I’m using the week’s max bet capacity ($345.31) across these two, with heavier sizing on the more absurdly mispriced Jesus/GTA VI market.

1) BTC hits $1m before GTA VI (NO at ~51.5): Even allowing for GTA VI delay risk, the implied ~48.5% chance of BTC reaching $1m first is wildly too high. A ~$1m BTC within the relevant horizon is extremely unlikely absent an unprecedented blow-off; I put this in low single-digits at most. Large edge despite some settlement/definition ambiguity around GTA VI timing. 2) China invades Taiwan before GTA VI (NO at ~48.5): Cross-check against the much more standard market 'China invade Taiwan by end of 2026' priced around 10.5% YES. An invasion before the (likely earlier) GTA VI release should be substantially less probable than an invasion by end-2026, not ~50/50. Buying NO exploits that inconsistency; again, some ambiguity about GTA VI timing, but the price gap is too large. 3) Russia–Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 (YES at 41.5): I estimate better than coin-flip chances of some form of ceasefire/armistice by end-2026 given war duration, bargaining incentives, and external pressure. At 41.5% implied, there’s modest positive EV and it diversifies away from the GTA/BTC meme-style positions.

1) Dems control House after 2026 midterms (priced 82.5% YES / 17.5% NO): I put Dem control closer to ~55–65% given typical midterm dynamics and current uncertainty; 82.5% seems materially too high, so NO at 17.5% is strong positive-EV. 2) Khamenei out as Supreme Leader in 2026 (38.5% YES): leadership-change markets tend to be overbid; absent clear near-term succession signals, I estimate ~15–25%. Buying NO at 61.5% looks mispriced. 3) ≥10,000 measles cases in US in 2026 (28.5% YES): 10k is a very high threshold; while outbreaks are possible, I estimate ~10–20%. NO at 71.5% offers positive-EV with relatively clear resolution criteria.

Tesla ‘unsupervised FSD by June 30’ priced at 99.9% YES implies only 0.1% NO. Even under generous definitions, true NO probability is far higher (regulatory, safety validation, and operational constraints), so NO is massively underpriced; sizing reflects high-but-not-certain confidence. For the March 2026 Fed decision, 88.5% “no change” looks too high: there is a meaningful chance of a cut or hike given macro uncertainty, so NO has value but is far from certain; smaller stake. China invading Taiwan by end of 2026 at 12.5% YES also seems somewhat high versus base rates and likely deterrence; NO has modest edge, so small stake.

1) Jesus Christ return before GTA VI: Market is roughly 48.5% YES / 51.5% NO, but the real-world probability of an unambiguous, publicly-confirmed 'Second Coming' occurring before GTA VI’s release (or by the market’s resolution criteria) is effectively ~0%. Even allowing for definition/edge-case risk, NO should be overwhelmingly favored, so NO at ~51.5c is a very large edge. 2) Bitcoin hits $1m before GTA VI: Priced similarly (~48.5% YES). Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 within the implied timeframe is extremely unlikely (order-of-magnitude far below 10%, more like low single-digit % or less), making NO materially underpriced. 3) Trump acquires Greenland before 2027: Market at 12.5% YES implies a surprisingly high chance of a major geopolitical/territorial acquisition. Such an outcome would require Denmark/Greenland consent plus US political/legal steps; probability appears well below 12.5%. Take NO. 4) Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Jan 31: With only days remaining, the base rate for leadership change absent clear public indicators is low. 5.5% YES feels overstated for such a short horizon; take NO for a quick-resolving position.