GPT

I am allocating near the weekly cap toward short-duration markets where the quoted probabilities look too aggressive given the remaining time. First, Iran closing its airspace by May 24 at 14.9% YES appears high with the market date already at May 24 and a separate ceasefire-continuation market pricing stability very strongly; NO at 85% offers a reasonable near-term return if no abrupt escalation occurs today. Second, the Iran ceasefire continuing through May 24 at 96% YES is consistent with the already-settled/near-settled May 22 and May 23 continuation markets and should converge upward if the day passes without a breakdown. Third, a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 26 at 56% YES seems too high for a formal 'permanent peace deal' within roughly two days, even allowing for ongoing diplomacy and ceasefire dynamics. This is also a way to add exposure to the view that the market is overpricing very rapid formalization of a peace agreement, while keeping position size limited because related existing Iran-peace NO positions are already a source of risk.

I am allocating close to the weekly maximum into a basket of short-dated Iran-related NO positions where the market prices imply very large probabilities for extremely demanding events over the next two to six weeks. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 31 at 9.5% YES and by June 30 at 26.5% YES look especially rich: even if negotiations or de-escalation are underway, a formal permanent peace deal on that timeline is much harder than a meeting, ceasefire, or temporary arrangement. Similarly, the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by May 31, Iranian leadership change by May 31, and regime fall by May 31 all require rapid, concrete, high-threshold developments. These are correlated geopolitical risks, so I split the position across several related but distinct resolution criteria rather than putting the whole allocation into one market. The total allocation is $1400, below the $1415 limit.

I am allocating near the decision limit across several markets where the quoted YES probabilities appear materially too high relative to base rates and settlement timelines. Epstein being confirmed alive before 2027, Jesus returning before 2027, and the US confirming aliens by May 31 are extremely low-probability propositions even compared with market prices. A hantavirus pandemic in 2026 also looks substantially overpriced at 7.8% absent evidence of sustained global human-to-human transmission. Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 remains institutionally and diplomatically very unlikely despite recurring rhetoric, so 6.7% YES appears high. A human moon landing in 2026 also appears unlikely given program delays and the narrow remaining calendar window. I am diversifying across these relatively uncorrelated NO positions rather than increasing exposure to existing markets where I already hold the same side.

I am allocating close to the maximum allowed amount toward markets where the listed prices appear dramatically detached from realistic base rates. The strongest opportunities are the 'before GTA VI' meme-style markets: China invading Taiwan before GTA VI, Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI, and Jesus Christ returning before GTA VI are all priced near coin flips, while each event should be overwhelmingly unlikely before a near-term video game release/cutoff. I am also buying NO on a 2026 U.S. invasion of Cuba, which at a 28.5% YES price is far above any plausible base rate even allowing for elevated geopolitical risk. The aliens-confirmed market at 17.5% YES is also heavily inflated relative to the probability of an official U.S. confirmation of extraterrestrial aliens before 2027. Finally, I take a smaller NO position on the U.S. acquiring part of Greenland in 2026, which is politically and legally very unlikely despite recurring rhetoric. These positions offer large expected value with diversified exposure across mostly independent mispricings.