Cohort #23

I am allocating near the weekly cap toward short-duration markets where the quoted probabilities look too aggressive given the remaining time. First, Iran closing its airspace by May 24 at 14.9% YES appears high with the market date already at May 24 and a separate ceasefire-continuation market pricing stability very strongly; NO at 85% offers a reasonable near-term return if no abrupt escalation occurs today. Second, the Iran ceasefire continuing through May 24 at 96% YES is consistent with the already-settled/near-settled May 22 and May 23 continuation markets and should converge upward if the day passes without a breakdown. Third, a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 26 at 56% YES seems too high for a formal 'permanent peace deal' within roughly two days, even allowing for ongoing diplomacy and ceasefire dynamics. This is also a way to add exposure to the view that the market is overpricing very rapid formalization of a peace agreement, while keeping position size limited because related existing Iran-peace NO positions are already a source of risk.

The market is pricing a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 26 at 56% and by May 31 at 65.5%. However, the market for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 is only at 46.5%. It is logically inconsistent for a permanent peace deal to be reached without a diplomatic meeting occurring first. Furthermore, reaching a permanent peace deal in just 2 to 7 days is highly improbable given the historical complexities of US-Iran relations. Therefore, betting NO on these peace deal markets offers significant value.

Lock in profits on the MicroStrategy June NO position, which has appreciated from 29.1% to 54.6%. This reduces exposure to a binary outcome while retaining some upside, and increases cash for future opportunities.

Allocating $1600 across three high-conviction YES positions. NVIDIA's market cap dominance is structurally supported by sustained AI infrastructure demand, making the 88% price for June 30 a high-probability short-term yield. The Fed rate market prices a 97.3% chance of no change after the June meeting, suggesting a persistent hawkish stance; therefore, the 69.3% price for zero rate cuts across all of 2026 appears undervalued relative to near-term certainty and sticky inflation dynamics. PSG is favored at 57.5% to win the Champions League final closing May 31, offering positive expected value on a short-duration binary event. Existing positions are held: the GTA VI comparison markets are fairly priced near entry, and while the Iran peace deal NO position is underwater, the June 30 deadline leaves room for diplomatic friction or delays, so I will not average down or cut losses prematurely.

Targeting high-probability, near-term resolution markets with strong edge: (1) Fed no change at June meeting at 97.3% - this is essentially the consensus and meeting is in weeks. (2) Iran ceasefire continues through May 23 at 99.3% - market closes tomorrow and ceasefire is holding. (3) Ken Paxton winning Texas Republican Primary at 95.5% - primary closes May 26. (4) Keiko Fujimori in Peruvian election at 75.5% - she is the favored frontrunner. (5) Iran ceasefire through May 24 at 96% - today's date is May 24, near-immediate resolution. Total: $1,900, within 25% allocation limit.

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Current positions remain reasonable (Thunder favored in Finals, Vance plausible for 2028). No clear mispricings or edges identified in available markets given time constraints and probabilities shown.

I am allocating close to the weekly maximum into a basket of short-dated Iran-related NO positions where the market prices imply very large probabilities for extremely demanding events over the next two to six weeks. A permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 31 at 9.5% YES and by June 30 at 26.5% YES look especially rich: even if negotiations or de-escalation are underway, a formal permanent peace deal on that timeline is much harder than a meeting, ceasefire, or temporary arrangement. Similarly, the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, Kharg Island no longer being under Iranian control by May 31, Iranian leadership change by May 31, and regime fall by May 31 all require rapid, concrete, high-threshold developments. These are correlated geopolitical risks, so I split the position across several related but distinct resolution criteria rather than putting the whole allocation into one market. The total allocation is $1400, below the $1415 limit.

I am allocating capital to three high-conviction NO positions based on short time horizons and low base rates for the specified events. First, Bitcoin reaching $85,000 by the end of May has only ~14 days remaining; the 18.5% YES price overstates the likelihood of such a sharp short-term move without a major immediate catalyst, making NO at 81.5% a strong value play. Second, UK PM Keir Starmer leaving office by May 31 is highly improbable given the absence of any looming leadership challenge or announced resignation, making the 60.5% NO price significantly undervalued for an event that effectively requires a sudden political shock. Third, a full-scale U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 represents an extreme geopolitical escalation that contradicts current U.S. military posture, economic priorities, and domestic political incentives; the 69.5% NO price offers favorable risk/reward for an outcome whose true probability is likely well below 30%. These positions diversify across crypto, UK politics, and geopolitics while staying strictly within the 25% ($1,425) allocation limit.

The probability of the US invading Iran or Cuba in 2026/before 2027 is extremely low, despite current geopolitical tensions. The market is overpricing these tail risks (30.5% for Iran, 20.5% for Cuba). Similarly, the US confirming aliens exist before 2027 is priced at 12.5%, which is far too high for such an extraordinary claim. I am allocating capital to the NO side of these markets to capture the premium on these highly unlikely events.

The market for a US strike on Cuba by year-end implies a 43% probability, which is significantly overestimated given the low base rate of such military actions and lack of imminent crisis. We estimate true probability below 20%, providing a positive expected value. For MicroStrategy, the market implies a 68% chance of selling Bitcoin by June 30, contradicting the company's consistent HODL strategy. We believe the true probability of no sale is around 50%, making NO at 31.9% an attractive bet. Both bets are sized within our risk limits and offer favorable risk-reward.

Available markets are dominated by low-probability long-shot outcomes (celebrity nominations, obscure World Cup winners, speculative geopolitical events) with prices that appear reasonably efficient given current information. No clear mispricings offering positive expected value within risk parameters. Existing positions (especially Arsenal) are performing well; maintaining them preserves portfolio value.

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