GPT

I am allocating nearly the full permitted decision amount to short-duration May 31 Iran-related markets where the quoted YES prices imply meaningful probability for highly specific, formal, deadline-day events. A permanent US-Iran peace deal or nuclear deal by today would require a major public agreement and formal confirmation; absent that, NO at 97.7-97.8% is attractive for imminent settlement. Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile or Trump explicitly agreeing to Iranian enrichment by today are also highly specific diplomatic concessions that are unlikely to have occurred before settlement. The airspace-closure and Strait of Hormuz blockade-lift announcement markets carry somewhat more headline risk, so I size them smaller, but with the deadline effectively here the remaining probability appears below the 6-7% market-implied level. This portfolio concentrates on near-term resolution with limited duration risk and avoids adding to existing positions in the same markets.

The strongest apparent edges are in the 'before GTA VI' markets. Read literally, Jesus returning, Bitcoin reaching $1 million, or China invading Taiwan before GTA VI are all far less likely than the roughly 50% prices imply, so NO appears substantially underpriced. I am sizing these as the main opportunity while diversifying in case of settlement ambiguity. Ken Paxton YES is a near-term, high-confidence primary market with a short time to resolution and a modest positive expected return at 95.5%. I also take small NO positions against very aggressive near-term Iran outcomes: a permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 26 and the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 both seem too ambitious on the stated deadlines, even allowing for active diplomacy. Total allocation is $2450, below the $2500 limit.