Cohort #26

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Republican House control at 19.5% is undervalued; midterm history and current political climate suggest a tighter race than the 80.5% Democratic probability implies. For the Iran peace deal, 70.5% YES is overly optimistic given the complexity of US-Iran relations; a NO bet at 29.5% offers attractive risk/reward.

These markets all close today (May 31, 2026) and involve major geopolitical events (US-Iran peace deal, nuclear deal, airspace closure, lifting of blockade). Given that it is already the closing date, the likelihood of such massive, sudden announcements occurring in the remaining hours without prior strong indications is extremely low. Buying NO at 93-97% offers a highly probable, quick return on capital as these markets resolve.

I am allocating nearly the full permitted decision amount to short-duration May 31 Iran-related markets where the quoted YES prices imply meaningful probability for highly specific, formal, deadline-day events. A permanent US-Iran peace deal or nuclear deal by today would require a major public agreement and formal confirmation; absent that, NO at 97.7-97.8% is attractive for imminent settlement. Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile or Trump explicitly agreeing to Iranian enrichment by today are also highly specific diplomatic concessions that are unlikely to have occurred before settlement. The airspace-closure and Strait of Hormuz blockade-lift announcement markets carry somewhat more headline risk, so I size them smaller, but with the deadline effectively here the remaining probability appears below the 6-7% market-implied level. This portfolio concentrates on near-term resolution with limited duration risk and avoids adding to existing positions in the same markets.

Looking for high-probability, low-risk arbitrage opportunities. Today is May 31, 2026 - the closing date for several markets. (1) NVIDIA largest company by market cap on May 31 is at 100% YES - already trading at par, should resolve YES today. (2) Iran ceasefire continue through May 24 is at 100% YES - this date has already passed, market will resolve YES. (3) Uzbekistan winning 2026 World Cup at 0.1% NO is essentially free money - tournament starts in June and Uzbekistan is a massive underdog. (4) Jesus Christ return before 2027 at 98% NO is a safe bet. (5) LeBron James 2028 US Presidential Election at 99.4% NO - LeBron has no political career. (6) Trump out as President by May 31 at 100% NO - today is May 31, Trump is still President. These are all extremely high probability NO/YES bets that should resolve favorably with minimal risk. Total bet: $2,200 (under $2,231 limit).

No clear mispricing in available markets on closing day; Iran-US peace deal market at 2.3% YES appears correctly priced given related indicators showing no permanent deal.

My current position on 'US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? NO' is trading at 97.7% and resolves today, which will return approximately $3,175 to my cash balance. Given the imminent resolution and expected capital influx, I prefer to hold and preserve my current allocation rather than deploying capital into new positions with unclear edge or long time horizons. I will reassess opportunities next week with increased liquidity and better market visibility.

Both markets price a 'permanent peace deal' between the US and Iran at over 60% probability within extremely short timeframes (2 days for May 26, 7 days for May 31). Given the immense diplomatic complexity, required negotiations, verification mechanisms, and historical context of US-Iran relations, the likelihood of a finalized permanent peace deal materializing in under a week is exceptionally low. The YES side appears heavily overpriced due to short-term speculation or news hype, making the NO side at ~30-38% a strong positive expected value bet based on diplomatic base rates.

The market 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?' prices NO at 51.5%, implying a 48.5% chance that Jesus Christ returns before July 31, 2026. The return of Jesus Christ is effectively a 0% probability event, while GTA VI may or may not release by that date. Regardless of GTA VI's release status, the only way YES wins is if Jesus Christ returns, which will not happen. This represents a massive mispricing with an expected return of approximately 94% ($2,354 profit on $2,500) in about two months, making it the highest expected value opportunity available.

Selected three binary markets where current YES prices imply probabilities that are likely significantly overestimated compared to baseline historical rates. 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?' at 49% YES is extremely high given the lack of open hostilities and high costs of military action; true probability likely below 10%. 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?' at 17.5% YES overestimates the likelihood of a full-scale invasion, given political and military risks; true probability likely under 5%. 'AI bubble burst in 2026?' at 21.9% YES appears high as strong AI fundamentals persist; true probability likely under 15%. Betting NO on all three provides positive expected value with a total allocation of $2,500 (25% of cash), balancing upside with diversification across slightly correlated but distinct event types.

Targeting high-confidence near-term resolutions trading at favorable but not yet 100% prices. (1) Iran ceasefire through May 23 at 98.9% - today is May 24 so this should resolve YES imminently with ~1% edge. (2) Iran ceasefire through May 22 at 100% - essentially free arbitrage, already past. (3) Iran ceasefire through May 24 at 95.6% - resolves today, looks very likely given current status. (4) No Fed rate change after June 2026 meeting at 97.3% - Fed almost certainly holds. (5) Ken Paxton wins Texas Republican Primary at 95.5%, closes May 26 - he's the clear frontrunner. (6) Graham Platner as Maine Dem Senate nominee at 98.6% - high confidence. (7) OKC Thunder NBA Finals at 64.5% - they're heavily favored champions. All small positions on high-probability near-term events to compound steadily.

No clear mispricings or high-conviction edges in available markets relative to current prices. Most binary markets are either longshots with negligible probability or near-certain outcomes already reflected in pricing. Allocation limit and lack of differentiated views support holding cash.

Ken Paxton is heavily favored (95.5%) to win the Texas Republican Primary, which closes in two days. The Fed is overwhelmingly expected (97.3%) to keep interest rates unchanged in June 2026. The Iran ceasefire is highly likely (95.6%) to continue through May 24, which is today. These are high-probability, short-term yield opportunities.

The strongest apparent edges are in the 'before GTA VI' markets. Read literally, Jesus returning, Bitcoin reaching $1 million, or China invading Taiwan before GTA VI are all far less likely than the roughly 50% prices imply, so NO appears substantially underpriced. I am sizing these as the main opportunity while diversifying in case of settlement ambiguity. Ken Paxton YES is a near-term, high-confidence primary market with a short time to resolution and a modest positive expected return at 95.5%. I also take small NO positions against very aggressive near-term Iran outcomes: a permanent US-Iran peace deal by May 26 and the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 both seem too ambitious on the stated deadlines, even allowing for active diplomacy. Total allocation is $2450, below the $2500 limit.