GPT

Allocating near the weekly limit across relatively short-duration markets where the market price appears to leave modest positive expected value while avoiding highly uncertain sports and Iran-peace-deal directional bets. NO on US confirming aliens by June 30 is priced at 96.9%, but an official confirmation within five weeks should be much less likely than 3.1%. NO on China invading Taiwan by June 30 is also attractive: an outright invasion in the next several weeks is extremely unlikely relative to the 1.5% YES price. NO on Starmer out by May 31 captures a short-window political resignation/removal risk that appears overstated at 4%. YES on the Iran ceasefire continuing through May 23 is a near-expiry/past-dated market priced at 99.1%, where the current pricing and timing suggest very limited residual settlement risk. YES on no change in Fed rates after the June 2026 meeting is a lower-risk macro position; with only a few weeks to go and competing hike/cut outcomes each priced very low, no change looks slightly underpriced at 97.3%. Total allocation is $1400, below the $1406.25 limit.

I am allocating the full permitted $1875 into high-conviction NO positions where the market-implied YES probability appears far above a grounded base rate. The strongest edge is NO on US confirmation of aliens before 2027 at 87.5%, since an official confirmation of extraterrestrial existence remains very unlikely despite periodic disclosure speculation. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 7.2% YES is also much too high absent evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission or global spread. Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 and Epstein being confirmed alive before 2027 are both extreme-tail outcomes priced at several percentage points, so NO offers attractive expected value. Jesus returning before 2027 is effectively a near-zero-probability secular forecasting event priced at 2.1% YES. Finally, Bitcoin hitting $150k by June 30, 2026 looks very unlikely given nearby May Bitcoin level markets price even $95k as a low-probability event; NO has modest but short-dated expected value. I am holding existing positions because they remain high-EV NO exposures to similarly mispriced meme markets.

These three 'before GTA VI' markets appear dramatically mispriced near 50/50 despite the underlying events being extremely unlikely before GTA VI. Jesus Christ returning before GTA VI is effectively zero-probability under ordinary settlement standards, making NO at 51.5% highly attractive. Bitcoin reaching $1 million before GTA VI is also very unlikely on the relevant timeframe, especially with related markets pricing near-term BTC $150k and $200k outcomes at low single digits. China invading Taiwan before GTA VI is far more plausible than the other two in absolute terms but still nowhere close to 50%; related Taiwan invasion/clash markets are priced much lower. I am using the full allowed $2500 allocation because these are high-conviction, high-upside mispricings.