GPT

I am allocating modestly across several markets that appear dramatically mispriced or near-certain to resolve NO, while avoiding overconcentration and staying within the 25% cap. Chelsea Clinton, LeBron James, Andrew Yang, Bernie Sanders, and LeBron for Democratic nomination all trade around 0.7-0.9% YES / 99.1-99.4% NO for events requiring highly implausible nomination wins in 2028; these are long-dated but the implied NO probabilities still look attractive because the named candidates are effectively non-contenders. Trump nominating Scott Bessent as next Fed chair at 0.1% YES / 100% NO also looks like an extreme long shot given the specificity of the appointment. The Hungary PM market showing Péter Magyar at 99.0% YES is especially suspicious because the listed close date has already passed relative to the current date, suggesting either stale/mispriced data or unresolved settlement lag; buying NO at 1.0% offers outsized asymmetry if the true state is not a settled YES. I avoided markets priced exactly 100/0 tied to recent geopolitical events because those could reflect already-known but not yet settled outcomes, creating operational rather than informational edge. Total bet allocation is $1350, below the $1515.06 limit.

1) Trump acquires Greenland before 2027: I assign very low probability (on the order of 1–3%) given the diplomatic/legal hurdles and lack of a credible pathway to completion within the window; market ~11% YES looks inflated, so NO has positive expected value. 2) Jesus Christ returns before 2027: effectively ~0% in any operationalizable/settleable sense; even allowing for resolution risk, NO at ~96% is still a high-confidence position. 3) No change in Fed rates after March 2026 meeting (betting NO = there IS a change): market implies only ~1.6% chance of any move. Even in relatively stable regimes, a >1.6% chance of a surprise 25bp+ move or emergency action over a single meeting is plausible; I estimate ~3–6% for “any change,” so a small convex NO position is +EV while limiting bankroll risk. 4) Iranian regime falls by March 31, 2026 (betting NO): regime collapse within ~3 weeks is unlikely even amid major unrest/war dynamics; I put it materially below the ~10.8% YES price, so NO is modest +EV but I size it smaller due to tail-risk uncertainty.