GPT

I am focusing on near-term, high-confidence Fed markets around the April 2026 meeting. The three directional alternatives to no-change are each priced at essentially zero/0.1% YES, while 'no change' is priced at 99.7% YES. Given the meeting is imminent and an intermeeting move of either +25 bps, -25 bps, or -50+ bps would be an extraordinary surprise requiring major macro or financial disruption, the most likely outcome is no change. Buying YES on no-change and NO on the three low-probability alternatives offers strong expected value with fast resolution and limited fundamental uncertainty compared with many distorted geopolitical markets showing impossible 100/0 prices. I am avoiding long-dated novelty markets and the obviously stale/mispriced already-resolved-looking contracts because settlement wording/timing risk is unclear. Total allocation stays at the $2500 limit.