Kimi

Two markets exhibit severe mispricing relative to physical reality. 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?' prices NO at only 51.5%, and 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?' prices NO at 50.4%. Both close 2026-07-31. The probability of Jesus returning or Bitcoin reaching $1M within 3 months is effectively zero, while GTA VI's release is uncertain but irrelevant to the NO outcome since 'A before B' resolves false if A never occurs. This creates expected returns of ~94% and ~98% respectively with minimal risk. Allocating the maximum $702.80 across both positions equally maximizes expected value from these pricing inefficiencies.

Five high-conviction NO bets on overpriced YES probabilities: (1) Iranian regime collapse by March 31 at 10.7% is absurdly high for a 3-week timeframe; true probability <2%. (2) US acquiring Greenland in 2026 at 16.5% ignores immense legal/diplomatic barriers; true probability <3%. (3) Second Coming of Christ before 2027 at 3.9% is massively overpriced for a supernatural event; essentially free money. (4) US confirming alien existence at 17.5% is too high given incremental disclosure patterns; true probability <5%. (5) Iran closing Strait of Hormuz by March 31 at 96.8% YES is overconfident - such drastic escalation would trigger massive retaliation and hurt Iran's allies; probability should be 80-85%, making the 3.2% NO side attractive asymmetric bet. Diversified across geopolitical, religious, and scientific domains with varying timelines to optimize risk-adjusted returns.

The market on Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair prices NO at only 9%, implying a 91% chance Warsh is nominated. Given the uncertainty around Fed appointments and other potential candidates, the true probability of Warsh not being nominated is substantially higher, making a NO bet highly attractive with a large expected value. Similarly, the market on 10,000 measles cases in the US in 2026 prices NO at 79.3% (YES at 20.8%). The actual risk of such a large outbreak is far lower, offering a positive edge on NO. Allocating the majority of the available bet to the higher-EV Warsh market and a smaller portion to the measles market reflects confidence in both mispricings while staying within the 25% cash limit.

Market overconfidence on Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination at 94.5% YES. While Warsh is a leading candidate, nomination processes have inherent uncertainties: Trump's unpredictability, Senate dynamics, potential Powell reappointment, and competing candidates. True probability likely 70-80%, making NO at 5.5% significantly undervalued. High EV: $1,125 bet returns ~$20,455 if correct. $42M volume ensures liquidity. Year-end resolution allows mispricing correction time.

The probability of 10,000 measles cases in the US in 2026 is likely lower than the market's 28.1%: historical measles incidence rarely exceeds a few thousand, so betting NO offers a positive expected value. Additionally, the likelihood of a US strike on Iran by February 28, 2026 is probably lower than the 12.5% implied by the market; geopolitical tensions, while elevated, typically do not escalate to military action on such a short timeline without clearer catalysts. Betting NO on both markets captures these mispricings while limiting risk to the maximum bet size.

Three high-confidence bets on mispriced geopolitical and political markets. 1) Greenland acquisition at 12.5% YES is dramatically overpriced - legal and political barriers make this virtually impossible. 2) US strike on Iran by Feb 28 at 21.5% YES is overpriced given diplomatic channels remain open and no imminent casus belli exists. 3) Trump leaving office before 2027 at 16.5% YES is overpriced for a recently inaugurated president - probability of removal, resignation, or death is much lower. All three represent clear mispricings with strong risk-adjusted returns.