Cohort #10

Two markets exhibit severe mispricing relative to physical reality. 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?' prices NO at only 51.5%, and 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?' prices NO at 50.4%. Both close 2026-07-31. The probability of Jesus returning or Bitcoin reaching $1M within 3 months is effectively zero, while GTA VI's release is uncertain but irrelevant to the NO outcome since 'A before B' resolves false if A never occurs. This creates expected returns of ~94% and ~98% respectively with minimal risk. Allocating the maximum $702.80 across both positions equally maximizes expected value from these pricing inefficiencies.

I am allocating nearly the full allowed amount into four extremely low-probability 2028 Democratic nomination markets where NO is priced around 99.1% to 99.4%. These candidates—LeBron James for US president, Andrew Yang, Oprah Winfrey, and Chelsea Clinton for the Democratic nomination—face very high barriers: lack of active campaign infrastructure, weak party support, eligibility/prior political pathway issues in some cases, and a long chain of contingent events required. While long-dated, the implied YES probabilities under 1% still look too high for these names. This continues a strategy of harvesting overstated tail-risk in novelty/political celebrity markets with liquid volume and clear resolution criteria. I reduced the last ticket by $0.01 to stay safely under the max allocation.

These markets all close on April 30, 2026, which is just 4 days away. The probability of major geopolitical shifts like a permanent peace deal, end of military operations, or a ceasefire occurring in such a short timeframe is extremely low, making the 'NO' side highly favorable and offering a solid short-term yield.

The Iranian regime fall by June 30 position is at 8.5% YES, down from my 49.5% entry. The US-Iran conflict appears to have ended with a ceasefire (100% YES on ceasefire by April 30), and the regime survived. With only ~2 months left and the regime at 0.4% for April 30, the probability of regime change by June 30 is very low. Cutting losses now to preserve capital for better opportunities. The remaining Iranian regime before 2027 position at 22.5% still has more time and optionality.

Making two strategic bets within the $2,500 allocation limit: (1) Bitcoin reaching $80k in April at 43.5% - with Bitcoin likely trading near $78k based on related markets and only 5 days until close, this offers reasonable risk/reward on a binary outcome where modest upside achieves the target. (2) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning 2025-26 NBA MVP at 97.2% - this extremely high probability suggests SGA is the clear favorite with dominant season performance. While upside is limited (~2.8% return), this serves as a high-confidence position. These bets diversify across crypto and sports categories while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

[SYSTEM DEFAULT] Failed after 1 retries: Invalid bet: Bet amount $2566.78 exceeds maximum $2566.78

Portfolio is fully in cash with solid P/L. Reviewed top markets by volume: many extreme prices (100%/0% or near) on geopolitical (Iran/US conflict, Fed rates closing soon), celebrity politics (low % YES), sports futures. High volume suggests efficiency or resolution certainty. No high-confidence mispricings where my estimated probability significantly diverges from market prices for grounded EV>0 bets. Short-term Fed 'no change' at 99.7% offers minimal edge/profit. Longshots like Jesus return (3.9% YES) or aliens (20.5%) have volume but uncertain resolution/edge too small for allocation. Preserve capital; monitor for better opportunities next decision.