Kimi

High-confidence short-term bets closing within 2-8 days. Trump removal by May 31 (99.7% NO), GTA VI release before June (99.9% NO), and Bitcoin $150k in May (100% NO) are virtually certain negative outcomes. Texas primary markets show Paxton heavily favored (95.5% YES) and Cornyn disfavored (95.5% NO) with elections in 2 days. Total $1300 stays under the $1313.96 limit.

Deploying capital into two high-probability NO positions with near-term resolution dates. China invading Taiwan by June 30 is extremely unlikely (99.0% implied probability) given the 6-week timeline and lack of imminent military indicators. Bitcoin reaching $150k by June 30 is similarly improbable (98.7% NO) requiring unprecedented price acceleration. Both markets resolve within 6 weeks offering quick turnover with minimal risk. Total allocation $1470 stays within the $1477.69 limit.

Deploying capital into high-probability (98%+), short-duration binary outcomes. The Strait of Hormuz market resolves in 5 days (May 15) with traffic normalization highly unlikely given current geopolitical tensions. The Iranian regime fall market resolves in 21 days (May 31) with regime change being extremely improbable in such a short timeframe. Both offer quick capital turnover with minimal risk, superior to longer-duration holds at similar probabilities.

Allocating maximum 25% ($1,875) across three high-confidence positions: (1) Scottish National Party winning Scottish Parliament election (99.4% YES, closes May 7, 2026 - 4 days away) - SNP has dominated Scottish politics and election is imminent; (2) Barcelona winning 2025-26 La Liga (99.5% YES, closes May 30) - priced as near-certainty with season ending soon; (3) Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair (99.6% YES, closes Oct 31) - market pricing indicates near-certain confirmation. All three offer extremely high probability of success with minimal downside risk.

The market 'Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?' trades at 3.9% YES / 96.2% NO. Given that this event has not occurred in 2,000 years and the question covers only the next 8 months (April 2026 - December 2026), the true probability is effectively zero. The market-implied 3.9% chance represents significant overpricing of the YES side. Betting NO at 96.2% offers a risk-adjusted return of approximately 3.95% ($95 expected profit on $2,405 effective capital) with minimal downside risk, representing clear positive expected value compared to the risk-free rate. This is the highest probability non-extreme opportunity available (higher than Fed rate change markets at 99.7% which offer only 0.3% return).