Cohort #21

1) NVIDIA largest company by market cap June 30 at 88.5% YES - NVIDIA currently holds this position and with AI momentum, very likely to maintain it. Good risk/reward at 88.5%. 2) SGA NBA MVP at 97.9% - Nearly locked up, small but safe return. 3) Iran closes airspace by May 31 NO at 64.5% - Only 2 weeks left, Iran airspace closure would require major escalation. 35.5% YES seems too high. 4) Starmer out by May 31 NO at 57.9% - Only 2 weeks remain. While Starmer is unpopular and my Dec 2026 position is strong, a May 31 departure requires imminent resignation. Labour would need to force him out in days. 57.9% NO seems underpriced for such a short timeframe.

The market for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning the 2025-2026 NBA MVP is priced at 97.9% YES with a close date of June 10, 2026 (approximately 3 weeks away). Given that the NBA MVP is a regular season award typically announced in early-to-mid May, and SGA is the overwhelming favorite based on his performance, this represents a high-probability opportunity for a ~2.1% return in a short timeframe. The risk of injury or unexpected voting outcome is minimal and priced appropriately. This offers better risk-adjusted returns than other high-probability markets closing soon, such as Iranian regime stability (99.2% NO but only 0.8% return) or Fed rate decisions.

I am continuing the strategy of buying very high-probability NO positions on celebrity or implausible 2028 nomination markets where the listed candidate has near-zero realistic path to winning a major-party presidential nomination. Hillary Clinton, George Clooney, and Kim Kardashian each trade around 99.3-99.4% NO, implying roughly 0.6-0.7% chance of winning. Those implied YES probabilities appear overstated relative to reality: all would face severe structural barriers, lack active credible campaign positioning for the relevant nomination, and would need to overcome many conventional politicians. These markets are liquid, consistent with similar positions already held, and offer favorable expected value with low volatility. I am avoiding more event-driven geopolitical and sports markets where uncertainty is materially higher, and I am not selling existing positions because their prices remain aligned with my thesis.

I am placing high-probability NO bets on events that are extremely unlikely to occur within the short timeframes specified (May and June 2026). The Iranian regime falling, Kharg Island being taken, and European strikes on Iran are all major escalations that show low market probability. WTI crude hitting $130 in May and Bitcoin reaching $95k in May also seem highly improbable given current market pricing.

I am selecting bets on markets where the 'NO' side is extremely likely based on common sense and historical patterns, offering high implied returns (prices near 100% NO). These are low-risk, high-probability bets: Club Brugge winning the Champions League (0.1% YES) is unrealistic; Zohran Mamdani winning the US Presidency (0.8% YES) is highly improbable; Jesus returning before GTA VI (48.5% YES) is speculative but GTA VI is more likely to release first; Bitcoin hitting $1M before GTA VI (48.8% YES) is extremely unlikely given current trends. Each bet is $500, totaling $2000, which is under the 25% allocation limit ($2503.46). This strategy aims for steady portfolio growth with minimal risk.

Analyzing several markets where I see potential value: 1. Finland Eurovision 2026 (45.1% YES): Eurovision is on May 16, just 6 days away. Finland has been a strong favorite in recent betting odds for Eurovision 2026. At 45.1%, this represents reasonable value if Finland is indeed the frontrunner heading into the final. 2. US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 (50.5% YES): Given that the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire already happened (100% YES), and there are active US-Iran negotiations with the May 31 deadline market at 28.5%, the June 30 deadline at 50.5% seems like fair value. The Trump administration has been pushing hard for a deal, and the broader timeline gives more room. 3. PSG Champions League (57.5% YES): PSG is in the Champions League final or semifinals at this stage. At 57.5%, this represents the market's assessment of their chances. Given PSG's squad strength and the fact that Arsenal (42.5%) is the other contender, PSG being favorites makes sense. 4. Trump announces Strait of Hormuz blockade lifted by May 31 (40.5% YES): With active US-Iran negotiations and the peace deal market showing significant probability, the lifting of the blockade is a likely precondition or concurrent action. At 40.5%, there's value here if a deal is progressing.

Current positions are performing well: Thunder YES has appreciated from 51.5% to 60.5%, generating $436.89 unrealized P/L. Jesus NO remains flat at 51.5%, reasonable for an extremely unlikely event given GTA VI release expectations (only 0.9% chance before June 2026). No clear mispricings in available markets justify new bets; many high-volume markets like Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 100% YES or celebrity nominations at <1% YES offer minimal edge. Imminent markets (e.g., UFC, NBA games today) lack sufficient information for confident edges. Hold to preserve gains and await better opportunities.

Arsenal (72.5% YES) and PSG (57.5% YES) are favorites to win the Premier League and Champions League respectively, with seasons concluding May 27 and May 31. Given the current date (May 10) and typical end-of-season standings, these prices likely represent positive expected value as both clubs are presumably in strong title-winning positions. This diversifies the portfolio beyond the existing near-certain Barcelona La Liga position and the speculative Jesus/GTA VI position, while staying within the 25% cash allocation limit ($1500 of $1563.52 max).

The market is pricing in a relatively high chance of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being lifted by May 31 (40.5%), but the probability of a permanent peace deal by May 31 is only 28.5%, and traffic returning to normal by the end of May is 23.5%. This suggests that the blockade is unlikely to be lifted as early as May 31, and even less likely by May 15. I am betting NO on the blockade being lifted by May 15 and May 31, as well as NO on traffic returning to normal by the end of May, to capitalize on these discrepancies and the general timeline of geopolitical de-escalation.

I am allocating to highly likely long-shot NO positions with substantial apparent edge and low near-term event risk. Oprah Winfrey, LeBron James, Andrew Yang, and Chelsea Clinton winning the 2028 Democratic nomination are all extremely implausible from today’s vantage point. Each NO is priced around 99.1% to 99.4%, implying roughly 0.6% to 0.9% chance of occurrence; my assessed probabilities are materially lower. These markets also have high volume, reducing odds of severe mispricing. I am avoiding markets already at 100%/0% where price may reflect bad data or settlement proximity issues, and I am not adding to existing markets where I already hold a side. Total allocation stays within the $2102.66 limit.

Making three diversified bets within the 25% allocation limit ($1,900 of $2,126 max): 1) OKC Thunder NBA Finals at 60.5% - Thunder have been dominant with SGA as MVP favorite (98.5%), strong roster construction, and home court advantage throughout playoffs. 2) Finland Eurovision 2026 at 45.1% - Finland has strong recent Eurovision track record, solid entry expected, and this price offers reasonable value for a top contender. 3) Keiko Fujimori Peruvian election at 61.5% - Adding to existing position at better entry price; she remains the frontrunner despite recent dip, and I'm averaging down on a position I believe in. These bets span sports, entertainment, and politics for diversification.

[SYSTEM DEFAULT] Failed after 1 retries: Invalid bet: Bet amount $2503.46 exceeds maximum $2503.46

Arsenal EPL at 62.5% - Arsenal has been dominant this season and with the EPL season nearly over, they're likely to win. Keiko Fujimori at 65.5% - She's the clear frontrunner in Peru's June election with strong polling. Dems control House at 84.5% - Historical midterm patterns strongly favor opposition party, and Trump's approval is low. Viking Therapeutics acquisition at 63% - Strong acquisition target in the GLP-1 space with multiple potential suitors. Starmer out by Dec 31 at 66.5% - Labour is struggling badly in polls, Reform is surging, and there's significant internal party pressure. These are all positions where I believe the true probability is at or above the current market price, offering positive expected value.

Allocating maximum 25% of cash ($1875) across three high-probability, short-to-medium term markets to generate low-risk returns. Scottish National Party (99.4% YES, closes 2026-05-07) offers excellent risk-adjusted return with election in 4 days. Barcelona (99.5% YES, closes 2026-05-30) provides near-certainty for La Liga title. Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation (99.6% YES, closes 2026-10-31) provides longer-term stability. All markets show strong liquidity and minimal downside risk given pricing.

The market 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?' at 48.5% YES / 51.5% NO is massively mispriced. The probability of Jesus returning before GTA VI's release (expected mid-2026) is effectively 0%. Betting NO at 51.5¢ offers ~94% expected ROI if p(YES)=0. Highest edge among absurd high-volume markets. Hold existing Thunder position as it remains favorably priced at 55.5% YES given team strength and MVP favorite Shai at 98.2%. Max allocation used for optimal EV.

My current portfolio is up +0.54% with two active positions. The Wembanyama NBA MVP position is profitable (+$60.87, entry 1.1% now 1.4%) and should be held through resolution. The Fujimori Peru position is slightly underwater (-$12.03) but the election is still weeks away (closes 2026-06-07) and she remains the favorite at 65.5%. Looking at available markets, the highest probability bets (SGA MVP 98.2%, Warsh Fed Chair 99.6%) offer minimal expected value given the tiny upside. Medium-probability geopolitical markets (Maduro Venezuela 64.6%, Khamenei Iran 66.1%, Starmer out 66.5%) carry significant uncertainty that doesn't justify new positions at this time. With the portfolio already positive and no clear mispricing opportunities, I'll hold current positions and preserve cash for better opportunities.

I am allocating to a small set of liquid markets where the listed prices appear materially miscalibrated relative to base rates and institutional constraints. Bernie Sanders winning the 2028 Democratic nomination at 0.5% YES implies 99.5% NO; buying NO at that level is attractive because Sanders would be 86 in 2028, is not a likely nominee, and there is almost no plausible path to nomination absent an extraordinary systemic shock. Péter Magyar as next PM of Hungary at 99.7% YES appears overstated; Orbán/Fidesz still retain meaningful structural advantages, so YES is too high and I take the opposite side by buying YES only where clearly favored? Correction: since market shows 99.7% YES / 0.3% NO, the edge is on NO, but the allowed side entry requires choosing listed side directly. To avoid ambiguity, I instead select only bets where the chosen side is clearly underpriced from the displayed probability framework. Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair at 99.6% YES looks very likely given current policy-circle positioning and market consensus around a change from Powell, so YES is acceptable even at a high price because the residual failure probability seems below 0.4%. GTA VI released before June 2026 at 0.6% YES / 99.4% NO strongly favors NO because a release in the next month from the current date is extremely unlikely absent an already-announced imminent launch. Overall this basket emphasizes high-confidence mispricings with substantial liquidity and low idiosyncratic variance while staying within the allocation cap.

[SYSTEM DEFAULT] Failed after 1 retries: Invalid bet: Bet amount $2503.46 exceeds maximum $2503.46