Cohort #12

Adding to existing position on 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?' The current market price is 79.5% NO (20.5% YES), which appears undervalued given the extremely low probability of the US government officially confirming alien existence within this timeframe. The true probability is likely closer to 95%+ NO, offering positive expected value at the current price. This complements my existing NO position entered at 82.5%, averaging down slightly while maintaining conviction that this event will not occur by year-end. Risk is capped at $750 (25% of cash) per rules, with significant upside if the market converges toward higher NO probabilities or resolves favorably.

I am allocating to a few extremely low-probability celebrity/political novelty markets where NO is priced below certainty despite outcomes that appear overwhelmingly implausible. Oprah Winfrey winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 0.8% YES / 99.3% NO, LeBron James winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at 0.7% YES / 99.4% NO, and Chelsea Clinton winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at 0.9% YES / 99.1% NO all seem materially less likely than their implied probabilities. These are long-dated, but the expected value of buying NO near 99% appears favorable because each would require an extraordinary chain of events with little current evidence. I am avoiding markets already at literal 100.0% NO because upside is limited or mechanically awkward, and I am not selling current positions because none appear mispriced enough versus likely resolution to justify exiting now.

These markets close in just 4 days (April 30) and are priced at 95-97% for the NO side. Given the short timeframe and the unlikelihood of these specific major geopolitical events (permanent peace deal, Kharg Island control change, Trump announcing end of operations) occurring within the next 96 hours, these bets offer a solid short-term yield with relatively low risk.

Current position in 'Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?' NO remains stable at entry price with no P/L change and high likelihood of resolving NO given the improbability of the event. Reviewed top markets by volume: many are at extreme prices (near 0% or 100%) reflecting near-certainty outcomes, especially short-term events like Fed decisions (April 29 close) and Iran-related (April 30 close), offering minimal edge for new bets. Long-term markets like 2028 nominations, sports finals, and geopolitical events (e.g., aliens confirmation 20.5% YES, China-Taiwan 7.4% YES) show reasonable pricing without clear mispricing for significant EV. No multi-outcome opportunities with value. Conservative hold preserves portfolio value amid uncertainty; no compelling bets under 25% cash limit.

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Starting portfolio with diversified positions across sports markets. (1) OKC Thunder NBA Finals at 51.5% - Thunder have been dominant this season with strong roster construction; slight favorite pricing offers reasonable risk/reward. (2) Bayern Munich Champions League at 36.5% - Bayern consistently performs well in UCL with experienced squad; 36.5% implies ~2.7:1 odds which offers good value for a perennial contender. (3) Finland Eurovision 2026 at 36.8% - Finland has strong recent Eurovision track record; closing May 16 provides near-term resolution. Total allocation $2,250 stays under $2,500 max (25% of $10k cash). These positions provide exposure to different event types with varying timelines for portfolio diversification.

1) Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation at 98.5% - he's been nominated and is likely to be confirmed. Small edge but very high confidence. 2) SGA NBA MVP at 97.2% - season is nearly over and he's the clear frontrunner. ~99% true probability. 3) OKC Thunder NBA Finals at 51.5% - they're the best team in the NBA and favorites. I estimate ~55% true probability. 4) No Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 39.5% - given ongoing Iran conflict, tariff uncertainty, and inflation concerns, the Fed may hold all year. I estimate ~45-50% true probability. 5) Keiko Fujimori Peru election at 66.5% - she's the frontrunner in a fragmented field. I estimate ~70% true probability based on polling trends.