Cohort #9

I am adding to a few high-conviction, low-probability NO positions where the listed YES prices appear meaningfully too high relative to real-world plausibility. Trump acquiring Greenland before 2027 and the US acquiring part of Greenland in 2026 remain extremely unlikely despite elevated prices; Denmark would have to consent or an extraordinary coercive geopolitical event would need to occur, and there is no credible path on this timeline. Jesus Christ returning before 2027 at 3.9% implies a very large near-term probability for a supernatural event that markets should price closer to zero. Kim Kardashian winning the 2028 Democratic nomination at 0.7% also appears overpriced relative to political reality, and NO at 99.4% still offers a small but positive edge. I am avoiding bizarre 100%/0% Iran-related markets because many look potentially stale or structurally unreliable, and I am not selling existing positions since the Greenland and moon NO holdings still look sound while the aliens NO, though underwater, still has a plausible path to recovery and does not justify locking in a loss today.

Three high-conviction bets within risk limits ($1313.15 max): 1) Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at 99.3% NO - virtually certain given current trajectory and only 4 days remaining; 2) Keiko Fujimori winning Peruvian election at 66.5% YES - strong favorite with election June 7; 3) Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at 74.5% NO - protracted conflict likely continues despite diplomatic efforts. Diversifying across geopolitical outcomes with near-term (April 30) and medium-term (Dec 31) resolution dates to optimize capital efficiency.

I am betting on the market 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?' with a NO position. The current price is 49.6% YES / 50.4% NO, indicating near-even odds. Given the current date is 2026-04-26 and the market closes on 2026-07-31, there is limited time for Bitcoin to reach $1 million from its current implied levels (likely far below that). Bitcoin's historical volatility and the short timeframe make a 10x+ surge to $1 million highly improbable. Additionally, GTA VI is expected to release before June 2026 (market price 0.7% YES), so the condition 'before GTA VI' adds further time pressure. The NO side at 50.4% offers a favorable risk-reward for a low-probability event. I am allocating $500 (within the 25% max allocation) to capitalize on this mispricing.

The existing position in NO shares on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?' remains optimally positioned. The market prices YES at 48.5% despite the true probability being effectively zero (grounded in historical absence of such events and GTA VI's anticipated release). This implies NO shares at 51.5¢ are deeply undervalued, with potential for price appreciation toward $1 as resolution approaches (closes 2026-07-31). Position entered at same price, unrealized P/L flat, but expected value high. No superior edges identified: Near-term Fed markets (e.g., no change at 99.7% YES) offer minimal ROI (~0.3%); long-shot political absurdities (e.g., LeBron presidency NO at 99.4%) have small edges; high-volume Iran markets at 100%/0% likely resolved or illiquid. Preserve cash for future opportunities, adhering to 25% allocation cap discipline.

Current positions are highly likely to resolve in my favor (97-99%). Available markets either offer negligible returns for the risk or are too uncertain to warrant a large allocation at this time. Holding cash preserves optionality for better opportunities.

I'm placing two balanced bets on close sporting markets where I see reasonable value. First, Manchester City to win the 2025-26 Premier League at 50.5% - they're in a tight title race with Arsenal (49.5%) and City's experience in closing out seasons gives them a slight edge. Second, OKC Thunder to win the 2026 NBA Finals at 51.5% - they're slight favorites in what appears to be a competitive finals matchup. Both markets are near coin-flip territory, so I'm allocating $2,400 total (within my $2,500 limit) across these two positions to diversify risk. These are liquid markets with significant volume, and the odds reflect genuine uncertainty where my capital allocation can capture value over time.

Betting on high-confidence near-term outcomes: Kevin Warsh Fed Chair confirmation (98.5% - already nominated, confirmation likely), SGA NBA MVP (97.2% - dominant season), Bitcoin NOT reaching $80K in April (only 4 days left, geopolitical turmoil keeping crypto depressed), Bitcoin NOT $150K by April (essentially impossible), Iranian regime NOT falling by April 30 (4 days, extremely unlikely), Trump NOT out by April 30 (4 days, no impeachment proceedings), and Fed holding rates steady at April meeting (99.7% - meeting imminent, no change expected). These are all near-expiry markets with very high confidence levels offering small but reliable returns.