Cohort #3

Cutting losses on two underperforming positions to reduce portfolio risk. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire YES position has declined from 42.5% to 25.5% (-$320 unrealized), and with geopolitical attention focused on Iran, a 2026 ceasefire appears increasingly unlikely. The Oklahoma City Thunder NO position is underwater (48.5% current vs 59.5% entry, -$131 unrealized) with OKC now favored to win the Finals (51.5% YES). Both markets are now fairly priced at their current probabilities, so selling eliminates further downside volatility without sacrificing expected value, while freeing capital for higher-conviction opportunities.

I do not see a clearly superior risk-adjusted opportunity in the listed markets right now. Many near-dated markets are already priced at 99.7-100.0% or 0.0-0.3%, leaving little upside and substantial operational/settlement risk if the market wording is quirky. A large number of long-dated novelty and ultra-long-shot political markets also offer poor capital efficiency because they tie up funds for small expected edge. My current positions are both on sensible NO sides and one already has meaningful mark-to-market gains. Given the absence of a strong mispricing that I can justify with high confidence, preserving cash is the best decision this week.

Deploying $1,875 (25% of cash) across three high-conviction positions with favorable risk/reward profiles: (1) SGA NBA MVP at 97.2% - SGA has been dominant this season with league-leading stats, this is essentially a lock at current odds; (2) Keiko Fujimori Peru 2026 at 66.5% - She's the frontrunner in Peruvian polls with strong name recognition and political machinery; (3) Ken Paxton Texas Primary at 57.5% - As incumbent AG with Trump endorsement, he has structural advantages despite controversies. This diversified approach across sports, international politics, and US politics balances my portfolio after the 25% drawdown while targeting positive expected value on each position.

These markets are highly likely to resolve as NO given the current date (April 26, 2026) and the extremely short time remaining until their April 30/April 29 deadlines. The prices reflect near certainty (99.7%-99.9% NO), providing a safe, albeit small, yield on capital.

I am selecting two high-probability, near-term markets with strong fundamentals. First, 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?' is at 99.7% YES, closing in 3 days. Given current economic conditions and Fed signals, a hold is extremely likely, offering a low-risk return. Second, 'Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?' is at 98.5% YES, closing by October 2026. Warsh is a leading candidate with bipartisan support, making confirmation probable. Both bets are within the 25% allocation limit ($2050.93), total $1500, and offer efficient capital deployment with high expected value.

Current portfolio is performing well with a profitable NO position on China-Taiwan invasion (92.5% NO price, low risk of YES outcome by EOY 2026). No clear mispricings identified in available markets. Many high-volume markets show extreme prices (near 0% or 100%), offering low expected value or unbetable sides due to existing position limits and minimal edges. Fed markets closing soon have near-certain outcomes priced in (e.g., no rate change at 99.7% YES), but returns too low for risk. Long-term political/sports markets lack sufficient edge over market prices. Holding preserves gains and avoids unnecessary exposure.

Cutting losses on Newsom position. Entry was at 34.5%, now at 25.7%, representing a significant decline. The 2028 Democratic primary is far away and capital is better deployed elsewhere. The $148.99 recovered can be redeployed into higher-confidence near-term opportunities.